When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Jordan Hicks on July 30, they didn’t bring in a project in need of fixing.
Hicks is recognized as one of baseball’s premier power pitchers, and when the trade was made, he was a high-value rental reliever. This was based on his performance with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he maintained a 3.67 ERA over 41.2 innings and showcased an impressive strikeout rate of 12.74 K/9.
Upon his arrival in Toronto, it might have been reasonable for the Blue Jays to advise the right-hander to stick with his existing approach. However, it’s evident that Hicks has made significant adjustments in his 15 games with the Blue Jays.
When teams acquire a pitcher from outside the organization, they often have a strategic plan for maximizing the player’s performance. The Blue Jays are no different in this regard. This strategy could involve tweaking mechanics or altering the pitch mix, but in Hicks’ case, it appears that there has been a shift in his overall pitching philosophy.
Since becoming a part of the Blue Jays, the experienced reliever has consistently attacked the strike zone, especially on the first pitch.
The overall results have also been solid from a run suppression perspective as his ERA with the Blue Jays (3.46) is better than his work with the Cardinals.
Despite those upsides, Hicks’ newfound zeal for pounding the zone is coming at a price. The most obvious is a drop in strikeouts.
It might appear counterintuitive that throwing more pitches within the strike zone would result in fewer strikeouts. However, when it comes to the right-hander, opposing hitters have made contact with 81.5 percent of his pitches inside the zone, while only connecting with 49.6 percent of those outside it.
This represents the delicate equilibrium that pitchers continually strive to achieve. Aggressively attacking the strike zone exposes you to a higher risk of hard-hit balls and can limit strikeouts. On the other hand, dancing around the edges can lead to generating weak contact and strikeouts, but it also carries the potential for serious control issues.
Since becoming part of the Blue Jays, it appears that Hicks has leaned toward the former approach. While his overall performance has been commendable, there are certain warning signs worth noting.
Peripheral metrics such as FIP and xFIP favor his performance with the Cardinals significantly more than what he has shown in Toronto, primarily due to the significant decrease in strikeouts.
There’s no need for alarm here. Jordan Hicks remains an exceptionally skilled pitcher, and his 15-game tenure with the Blue Jays is a relatively small sample size.
However, it’s evident that his pitching strategy has undergone a transformation since joining Toronto. While he has effectively prevented runs from crossing the plate, his performance now relies on a somewhat less stable foundation compared to his time in St. Louis.
When the Blue Jays acquired Hicks, he wasn’t a player requiring a complete overhaul. To recapture the dynamic high-leverage pitching he exhibited with the Cardinals, he may need to lean closer to the approach that allowed him to consistently rack up strikeouts in St. Louis, even if it means issuing an extra walk or two.
